Betting on football can be as simple or as complicated as you wish to make it. Let’s face it, if you want to rock up and simply place a bet on any old game, you can do. But in all honesty, if you want to make money from the game then you are going to need to put in at least a little bit of research into your picks.
To accompany that research, you can also spend time implementing a series of betting strategies that should allow you to make a guaranteed profit form a number of results. These betting strategies are actually pretty difficult to implement, so we have provided a guide with an insight as to how they work.
What we will start by saying is that there are an absolute plethora of ‘strategies’ floating around or people claiming that they can guarantee you will win money using these strategies. There is absolutely zero guarantee of just about anything when it comes to football betting! But there are opportunities that arise where we can make calculated decisions and apply a betting strategy that will allow us to make a profit or even reduce liability.
The hardest part about the upcoming article is actually finding the right markets and bets to work with, selecting the right football betting site to bet from India is not easy. We will talk you through a number of different ways in which you can apply these strategies, but what you will need to do is spend time practicing them – without playing for real money- before you can really become confident with each.
What we are basically saying is that there is no sure fire way these strategies will work 100% of the time. But then again, they aren’t designed to do that. There are no winning formulas when it comes to betting on football but there are ways in which you can maximize your expectation, which is what we are trying to achieve with these strategies.
The only tool you are going to need for these is access to a betting exchange, such as Betfair.
The exchange allows you to essentially become your own bookmaker with the ability to lay markets and it’s this feature that we will use in the majority of our strategies.
Backing and Laying of the Draw
The backing and laying of a draw in football is one of the more established strategies that we have come across. It also happens to have one of the highest amounts of success when it comes to making money. It’s very much a ‘little and often’ strategy though, in that you may only make small amounts but frequently.
The concept is to initially lay the draw in a football match before backing it again once a goal is scored. If we are able to do this, it will mean we can then guarantee a profit on all results.
As a basic concept, that is pretty much it, but there are some rules and guidelines to run through to ensure that we maximize profits and minimize loses.
The pretenses of the strategy are based on the fact that the majority of football games see at least one goal. For this to be successful it actually rarely matters which team score, as long as one does. Before the game we will be looking to lay the draw at whatever price it is set. As a goal is scored the likelihood of the draw will decrease meaning that the odds for the draw to happen will increase.
Using the betting exchange will allow us to both back and lay the draw at any point.
The markets will also fluctuate like any live market when the goal is scored. As the odds have risen after the goal, this will then allow us to bet an amount to ‘green up’. This is simply a term that bettors use on the exchange to make sure that a profit is guaranteed on each result. If there is an amount to be bet that allows for a profitable number on each result, they will turn green, hence the term.
The amount we need to back a team for will depend on a number of factors such as the amount of the initial lay, the starting price, minute of the first goal, which team has scored that goal and likelihood of a second goal. While these factors will affect how much profit you can make, it shouldn’t matter which team has scored to allow for a ‘green up’ scenario.
Betfair is the to betting exchange in the world, a practice similar to the stock exchange only that with sport bets instead of odds. It allows you to trade bets with other players for a variety of sports, including football. Deposits can be made using Neteller, Skrill and credit cards directly from India.
Example of Backing and Laying the Draw in India
The easiest way- hopefully – to explain how this system works is by running you through a simple, yet ideal scenario.
Let’s pretend that Pune FC are playing Mumbai FC at home and the odds on the draw are at 3.5 on the exchanges (note that we should be looking for odds no bigger than 3.8 or so with the draw as any larger will limit the amount in which we can win).
We decide this is a good number and go ahead with our initial lay of the draw. Bear in mind that at this point we are backing against the game ending in a draw.
Pune FC has gone into the game as favourites and have scored an early goal to make it 1-0. The odds of the draw have now increased to 6.0 as the likelihood of it finishing as a draw is a lot less likely.
The betting exchange will allow us to now back that same result for however much or little as we like. There will be a sweet spot number that you can enter to make a profit on all results (home win, away win and draw) or, if you prefer, you can manipulate the amount to pay out more for one result than the other. Either way, the amount you will receive from each result will be apparent before placing your bet so you can see either way.
Just in case this was still a little confusing then look at as having every result covered. Initially you laid the draw and then you backed the draw. Your lay bet will be all results apart from the draw (home win and away win) with your back bet being the draw itself. This strategy will work as long as you leave emotions out of it and avoid any of the 11 most common mistakes beginners make.
Things to Remember with Draw Laying
There a couple of rules to consider for this strategy, albeit simple ones.
#1 Not let a game run past the 65 minute mark
This is because we don’t want to ever leave a maximum liability on the table for the whole game. It may be tempting to keep going and hope a goal goes in, but we have worked out that this minute to be somewhere round the time where the odds of the draw really starts to drop meaning that leavening it any longer will leave a huge liability.
#2 Make sure your initial lay is around the 3.00 to 3.90 odds margin
It’s likely that most draws will be this amount, but anything above it will be seriously tough to make a sizable profit and it also increases our initial outlay. Ideally it will be nearer the 3.00 mark rather than the 4.00 or above.
#3 We also highly advise people to give this a trial run
This might be literally shadowing betting the system (i.e. using play money) or just betting for very small amounts to get a feel. It’s a good way to see how each market reacts and with different exchanges.
Hedging your Football Bets
Hedge betting is term used by bettors to place two or more bets on a certain outcome to guarantee a profit. Similarly to the backing and laying strategy above, essentially we want to place wagers that will make us money no matter the outcome of the match. The amount we make on each result can change depending on how much we decide to hedge for, but it’s a fantastic way in which to make a return on all results.
The concept of this type of bet is actually very simple, but finding bets in which you can make profitable hedges is pretty tricky. You first need to find a market where the odds are going to fluctuate a reasonably high amount and also a market in which you can gain access to a number of different markets.
One of the more popular markets to do this with for football betting is the outright winner markets of say the league or cup competitions. As each of these progress you will see that the odds for the winners will change quite a lot. It’s not uncommon for clubs to go from a 20/1 outsider only to reach the final at a 2/1 shot. These are ideal situations to hedge bets.
Hedge Betting Example
An easy example would be that we placed a wager on Pune FC to win the cup before a ball was kicked at 10/1. Let’s say that we placed £10 on this outcome giving us a potential return of £110 (including stakeback).
Pune FC then go on to make the final and it’s at this point that we decide to hedge our bets and try to find a way in which we can at least break even on two outcomes, whilst leaving one outcome with a profitable margin.
To do this we will need to back against Pune FC in the final and back the draw. This will mean we have backed – at some point – a Pune FC win, their opponents to win the match and the draw, resulting in every circumstance being covered.
Let’s say the draw is priced at 3/1 and Pune FC’s opponents are also priced at 3/1. We decide to bet £10 on each of these results leaving us a total liability for the tournament at £30 ( £10 on Pune FC at the start and our two bets of £10 mentioned just).
Our returns will be as follows:
- If Pune FC win then we will see a return of £110 (10/1) minus the £30 wagered, giving a total profit of £80.
- If the game ends in a draw we will see a return of £40 (3/1) minus the £30 wagered, giving a total profit of £10.
- If Pune FC lose the match we will see a return of £40 (3/1) minus the £30 wagered, giving a total profit of £10.
As you can see, each result now gives us a guaranteed profit no matter what the outcome. But it does reduce the amount we can win if we had just left Pune FC to win the competition, ride. The sacrifice in overall profit needs to be one made by you and not all hedges will work as successfully as the example above. Some will yield more profit than others, but the concept is to make every result one in which isn’t going to lose us money.
*Now that you know about Draw and Hedge betting strategies, there are other types of football bets that you should know about to apply these strategies on. Check them out!