The Super Kings missed the chance to go top of the table with a poor performance against bottom side Delhi Daredevils on Friday. MS Dhoni’s team made it to the play-offs some time ago but there is a danger now that they may miss out on the top two.
For Kings XI Punjab, an alarming slide means that they have to win here by a big margin and hope other results go their way. They can still qualify on 14 points but will likely need a major improvement on their weak net run rate.
It’s important for Chennai to maintain second place as that would take them straight through to Tuesday’s first qualifier and they have the backing of the bookmakers. In a one-sided market, CSK are the clear favourites at 1.66 with Betway while Kings XI can be taken at 2.25 with Betfair.
The issue for KXIP remains the same: With Chris Gayle struggling in recent matches, they are relying almost solely on KL Rahul for their runs although Aaron Finch did make a welcome return to form in their latest defeat to Mumbai Indians on Wednesday. Chennai’s struggles in recent matches mean there is a chance of an upset but when a team needs to win big there is a constant danger of losing regular wickets in the search for quick runs.
CSK haven’t been convincing and they look a little short but Punjab’s poor form leaves us siding with the favourites.
Match Odds Summary: Chennai Super Kings 1.66 (Betway – Editor’s Pick), Kings XI Punjab 2.25 (Betfair).
Ambati Rayudu has been the standout player for Chennai Super Kings this season but unlike Kings XI, CSK have a very tight top batsman market for this game. Rayudu and Shane Watson start as joint favourites at 4.00 with Betfair while MS Dhoni is only just behind at 4.25 with Betway.
Suresh Raina has been fairly consistent without making the really big scores and can be picked up at 4.50 with Betfair while other options for Chennai include Sam Billings at 9.00 and Dwayne Bravo at a distant 15.00 – both with Betfair again.
For Kings XI, things look much clearer with KL Rahul favourite to top score against Chennai at 3.20. Chris Gayle follows at 3.50 with Betfair while Aaron Finch looks to hold some value at 4.50 with Betway.
There has been little support elsewhere but Karun Nair has delivered a profit in this market at IPL 11 and can be backed at 5.50 with Betfair while other options for KXIP include Yuvraj Singh at 8.50 with Betway and Marcus Stoinis at 13.00 with Betfair.
While there are some obvious contenders on both sides, we’re taking Aaron Finch to top score for Kings XI as our overall tip. His return to form has been overdue but after making 46 from just 35 balls against Mumbai, he can kick on and 4.50 is an excellent price.
Top Batsman Odds Summary: Rayudu 4.00 (Betfair), Watson 4.00 (Betfair), Dhoni 4.25 (Betway), Raina 4.50 (Betfair), Billings 9.00 (Betfair), Bravo 15.00 (Betfair).
Kings XI Punjab: Rahul 3.20 (Betfair), Gayle 3.50 (Betfair), Finch 4.50 (Betway – Editor’s Pick), Nair 5.50 (Betfair), Yuvraj 8.50 (Betway), Stoinis 13.00 (Betfair).
Other Side Bets
In terms of individual centuries, this hasn’t been the most productive season but of the four tons we’ve seen so far, three have come from these two sides. Chris Gayle hit the first hundred of IPL 11 for Kings XI while Chennai’s Shane Watson and Ambati Rayudu both went past three figures and if you think we’ll see another century on Sunday, Betway have reasonable odds of 7.00.
Instead, we’ll finish with the HIghest Opening Partnership bet where Kings XI are too short for comfort at 1.72 with Betfair. Rahul and Gayle did put on a respectable 34 in their last match but as they go in search of quick runs the pairing just looks too brittle so Chennai are the pick at 2.10 with Betfair again.
Highest Opening Partnership Odds Summary: Chennai Super Kings 2.10 (Betfair – Editor’s Pick), Kings XI Punjab 1.72 (Betfair), The Tie 41.00 (Betfair).