The Australians had threatened to find their form at the mid-way point in this series and they finally delivered – albeit with the ODIs already lost. Clearly the danger for India lies in the top order of Warner, Finch and Smith and they will need to target them early if they want to seal the 4-1 scoreline that would adequately reflect the nature of this battle.
It’s on to Sunday in Nagpur now for the final 50 over game ahead of the T20s but there is little change in the market ahead of this one.
India remain comfortable favourites for Sunday’s final ODI and there has been little change in the pricing despite that Australian win. Virat Kohli’s men can be backed at best odds of 1.67 with Betfair while victory for Steve Smith’s tourists is available at 2.30 with Bet365.
Yes there were plenty of positives for the Aussies from that game and we had tipped a series score of 3-2 in favour of the hosts. However, while the openers put on that big stand they could have gone even higher than 334 but the middle order, except for Marcus Stoinis, slowed them down again.
The equation for India should be simple and if Australia are two or three down inside the first fifteen overs, it should all end with a 4-1 scoreline.
Match Odds Summary: India 1.67 (Betfair – Editor’s Pick) Australia 2.30 (Bet365).
The bookies have been a little slow to react to Thursday’s result but there is some good value from those that have declared.
Kedar Jadhav had been off our radar in terms of this market but having given the profit with 67 in India’s run chase we must consider him at odds of 9.00 with Bet365. Virat Kohli starts as favourite once again at 3.75 with Bet365 while Rohit Sharma follows at 4.00, also with Bet365.
Ajinkya Rahane has had a good series and can be found at 4.50 with Bet365 while Hardik Pandya at 7.00 and MS Dhoni at 11.00 provide the value further down. Once again, those prices are with Bet365.
For Australia, Finch at 4.00 and Warner at 3.75, both with Bet365, are the obvious players to consider while Steve Smith has slipped slightly to 4.33 with Bet365. We’ve seen little quality from the middle order although you could look at Glenn Maxwell at 7.00 with Bet365 and Marcus Stoinis at 13.00 with Bet365.
We’d expect Smith to make at least one big score in this series but from the overall lists we’ll be tipping Kohli for Sunday’s match.
Top Batsman Odds Summary: India: Kohli 3.75 (Bet365 – Editor’s Pick), Sharma 4.00 (Bet365), Rahane 4.50 (Bet365), Pandya 7.00 (Bet365), Jadhav 9.00 (Bet365), Dhoni 11.00 (Bet365).
Australia: Warner 3.75 (Bet365), Finch 4.00 (Bet365), Smith 4.33 (Bet365), Maxwell 7.00 (Bet365), Stoinis 13.00 (Bet365).
Other Side Bets
Runs seem to be coming more freely as the series comes to a close so for our final tip we’ll back any batter from either side to score a century which comes in at 1.66 with Bet365. However, there are lots of alternatives.
India to score most sixes is on offer at 2.10 with Bet365 while Australia are at the same price of 2.10 with Bet365 again. There is decent value in either option and perhaps the Aussies’ return to form makes them a slightly better bet there, even if they go on to lose the game.
Will a batsman score a hundred odds summary: Yes 1.66 (Bet365 – Editor’s Pick), No 2.10 (Bet365).
The Australians will be looking to end this series on a high note and get further momentum going into next week’s T20s. We think they could perform better in the shorter formats and while they are improving in the 50 over clashes, India should be looking to close this out with a 4-1 scoreline.