By the time Sunday’s game comes around, we’ll know exactly what’s riding on it. Kings XI could still progress to the play offs and although Sunrisers have seemed the vulnerable team, Glenn Maxwell’s men will overtake the Supergiants if they win here. Pune themselves may yet have a chance of finishing in the top two, thereby giving them the opportunity to be one match away from the final.
Potentially it could be a ‘winner takes all match’ and that will alter how these teams approach it.
For now, we’ll just have to judge it on the ante post markets where Pune are the favourites at 1.83 with Betfair while KXIP are the outsiders at a best price of 2.00 with Bet365 and Betway. Kings have been resurgent in recent games and have already beaten the Knight Riders and Mumbai so a fixture against the third placed side certainly won’t scare them.
As for Pune, they lost on Friday to another team who have improved considerably after a poor start. Delhi took the points in that one and the Supergiants may well be vulnerable here. You may want to see how other results go first but I think it will be a case of whoever wins this goes through and based on that I’ll be backing Pune at this stage.
Match Odds Summary: Rising Pune Supergiant 1.83 (Betfair – Editor’s Pick), Kings XI Punjab 2.00 (Bet365)
Steve Smith looked set to give us the profit against Delhi before a poor shot across the line against the left arm spin. Smith is usually calmer in a run chase but still goes off as Pune’s favourite in this market at a best price of 3.60 with Bet365.
It was another failure for Ajinkya Rahane and he looks in need of a rest but that seems unlikely so you may want to take the opener at 4.00 with Bet365. MS Dhoni at 8.50, Ben Stokes at 6.00 and Rahul Tripathi at 5.00 – all with Bet365 – are other contenders but Smith remains our preference.
The tip, however, comes from KXIP where I’m expecting Martin Guptill to really dominate a game as he often does for New Zealand. Glenn Maxwell is the favourite here at 4.00 with Bet365 leaving Guptill with decent value at his price of 4.33 with Bet365.
Other options here are Wriddhiman Saha at 5.00, Shaun Marsh at 4.50 and Manan Vohra at 5.50. Once again, all of those prices are with Bet365.
Top Batsman Odds Summary: Rising Pune Supergiant: Smith 3.60 (Bet365), Rahane 4.00 (Bet365), Tripathi 5.00 (Bet365), Stokes 6.00 (Bet365), Dhoni 8.50 (Bet365).
Kings XI Punjab: Maxwell 4.00 (Bet365), Guptill 4.33 (Bet365 Editor’s Pick), Marsh 4.50 (Bet365), Saha 5.00 (Bet365), Vohra 5.50 (Bet365).
Other Side Bets
We’ve touched on the century bet in recent games without actually tipping it but it’s still a tempter at best odds of 7.00 with Bet365. There are several players on both sides capable of this but once again we’ll play a bit safer and go for the Most Sixes option here.
Pune are the favourites for this bet at a top price of 2.00 with Bet365 but Kings XI have the greater individual firepower. Glenn Maxwell and Martin Guptill could take this market on their own so back KXIP at best odds of 2.15 with Bet365 again.
Most Sixes Odds Summary: Rising Pune Supergiant 2.00 (Bet365), Kings XI Punjab 2.15 (Bet365 – Editor’s Pick), the Tie 7.00 (Bet365).
Pune should really win this no matter what happens elsewhere but by the time this game starts, I feel that Sunrisers Hyderabad will have claimed their own play off slot and the winning team here will join them. While both sides have got over the line in incredibly tight situations, Pune have the better record of winning games when it gets tense.