Mumbai had seemed destined for the top spot for some time and that was duly confirmed with a win over their closest rivals KKR at the weekend. That victory also allowed Pune to sneak in and claim second place so it’s on to Tuesday with the winner of this game going straight through to Sunday’s final.
One issue for the Supergiants is the absence of Ben Stokes, a key player with bat, ball and in the field and a man who helped the side recover after a slow start. But, is that absence alone enough to make Pune the outside punt here at a relatively distant best price of 2.25 with Betfair?
That figure leaves Mumbai Indians as clear favourites at 1.73 with Betway and, of course, Rohit Sharma’s men do have the home advantage.
Stokes hasn’t taken the Supergiants to the play offs on his own and it’s easy to forget the contributions of MS Dhoni, Steve Smith and, in particular, Jaydev Unadkat who is the main threat to Bhuvneshwar Kumar in the race for the Purple Cap. But, it’s the balance of the side that will be upset and the key to Pune’s progression is how they replace him.
Either side will have a second chance if they lose here but Mumbai have been more impressive throughout the group stage and even though they’ve lost twice to Pune this season, Rohit Sharma’s men are coming back into form at the right time.
Match Odds Summary: Mumbai Indians 1.73 (Betway – Editor’s Pick), Rising Pune Supergiant 2.25 (Betfair).
Mumbai pre-empted a selection issue by replacing Jos Buttler with Lendl Simmons which was essentially a straight swap. Now, they have Ambati Rayudu in the side and making runs so they look well poised for a big score at the Wankhede.
Rohit Sharma starts as favourite with most bookies to score most runs for his team at a top price of 4.50 with Betway while Lendl Simmons can also be found at 4.50 with Betway again. Having top scored with 63 against the Knight Riders last time out, Rayudu is a value option at 6.00 with Bet365 while Nitish Rana can be found at 5.00 with Betway.
Rayudu’s entrance makes this tougher to call as Parthiv Patel was never a consistent candidate but the dependable Rohit Sharma is the most consistent batter and is our tip for Tuesday.
Moving across to Pune’s version of this market and Steve Smith starts things off as always at 3.60 with Betfair. Ajinkya Rahane found some touch in his side’s demolition of Kings XI and the opener is at 4.00 with Betway while Rahul Tripathi is quoted at best odds of 5.00 with Betway once again.
MS Dhoni could get more time at the crease with Stokes out of the side and the keeper is at best odds of 9.00 with Bet365. We’ve sided with Smith for some time here but with batters looking to step up and take more responsibility at this stage of the competition, Tripathi looks good at that 5.00 price.
Top Batsman Odds Summary: Mumbai Indians: Rohit Sharma 4.50 (Betway – Editor’s Pick), Simmons 4.50 (Betway), Rana 5.00 (Betway), Rayudu 6.00 (Bet365).
Rising Pune Supergiant: Smith 3.60 (Betfair), Rahane 4.00 (Betway), Tripathi 5.00 (Betway), Dhoni 9.00 (Bet365).
Other Side Bets
The game is all about the batters and if one bowler can somehow control things a little and turn in a brilliant spell, they might turn the game. I don’t think Pune can do it here but one of the safer bets could be to take Unadkat at best odds of 3.75 with Betway to return best figures for the Supergiants.
Competition comes from Adam Zampa at 5.00 with Bet365 and Dan Christian at 6.00 with Betway but Unadkat is in the form of his life and with Stokes missing, there is one less candidate to worry about.
Rising Pune Supergiant Top Bowler Odds Summary: Unadkat 3.75 (Betway – Editor’s Pick), Zampa 5.00 (Bet365), Christian 6.00 (Betway).
Pune will get one more chance to get through to Sunday’s final and these two may well meet again. Stokes isn’t the only reason why they are here but the key now is how they replace him and while they figure that out, a settled and strong Mumbai side are ready to win and progress.