We’ve reached the end of a long tournament and there are no real surprises when we look at the final two teams. Mumbai Indians topped the group for some time and recovered after a late stutter to breeze past KKR in the final qualifier and while Pune may have started slowly, they became one of the more impressive units and were the first side to book their place in Hyderabad.
The Supergiant also beat Mumbai in the opening qualifier and have already won against these opponents on three occasions at IPL 10 but can we expect a similar outcome on Sunday?
The bookmakers are actually coming down heavily on the side of Mumbai with Rohit Sharma’s team as clear favourites at 1.70 with Betfair. That figure means that Pune are out at 2.20 with Bet365 and Betway so can they overturn those odds?
Much has been said about the loss of Ben Stokes and Imran Tahir to international duty but the last time the Supergiant beat the Indians came without either of those two. All the good qualities we’ve seen came through in that qualifier and although Pune had a bit of luck with two crucial dismissals, their bowling unit remained impressive.
Mumbai have greater depth and on balance are the better team. One big innings from Lendl Simmons, Parthiv Patel, Rohit or Kieron Pollard will swing it while their own bowling shone as they dismissed KKR for just 107.
It’s certainly tighter than the markets suggest but, as I looked at Pune to be one of the more dangerous sides ahead of this tournament, I’ll back Steve Smith’s team to come through.
Match Odds Summary: Mumbai Indians 1.70 (Betfair), Rising Pune Supergiant 2.20 (Bet365 – Editor’s Pick)
If Pune are to get anything from this match then they will look to Smith to get the innings off to a solid start and the skipper is favourite to top score for his side at 3.50 with Bet365. Smith hasn’t delivered in this market for a few games but is fifth on the list of leading run scorers this year so could be a strong selection.
Ajinkya Rahane has no form but you may prefer his price of 3.75 with Bet365 while Manoj Tiwary, who has been more successful in recent matches, is out at a very tempting 8.00 with Bet365. Other options include Rahul Tripathi at 4.50 with Bet365 and MS Dhoni at 7.50 with Bet365. Plenty of suggestions there but I’m tipping Smith to lead by example and give us a profit.
For Mumbai, we have joint favourites in Rohit Sharma and Lendl Simmons, both of whom can be backed at 4.33 with Bet365. Meanwhile, Parthiv Patel is out at 5.00 with Bet365 while Ambati Rayudu is at 6.00 with Bet365.
In a match where two talented skippers need to deliver for their teams, I will be taking a punt on Rohit here but Steve Smith is my overall pick from these two markets.
Top Batsman Odds Summary: Rising Pune Supergiant: Smith 3.50 (Bet365 – Editor’s Pick), Rahane 3.75 (Bet365), Tripathi 4.50 (Bet365), Dhoni 7.50 (Bet365), Tiwary 8.00 (Bet365).
Mumbai Indians: Rohit Sharma 4.33 (Bet365), Simmons 4.33 (Bet365), Patel 5.00 (Bet365), Rayudu 6.00 (Bet365).
Other Side Bets
Pune’s top bowler market is a tempting one where Jaydev Unadkat is the favourite at 3.75 with Bet365 while you can also get the excellent Washington Sundar at 4.50 with Bet365 again. Alternatively, batting markets show a best price of 7.00 with Bet365 on any player scoring a century.
Instead, we’ll take a small punt in the Man of the Match betting where Steve Smith is one of four joint favourites, along with Simmons, Rohit Sharma and Rahane, at 10.00 with Bet365. We’ll list some other options but Smith is my tip to have the biggest influence on this game and hopefully, for the sake of our wagers, will deliver the IPL 10 title to the Rising Pune Supergiant.
Man of the Match Odds Summary: Smith 10.00 (Bet365 – Editor’s Pick), Simmons 10.00 (Bet365), Rahane 10.00 (Bet365), Rohit Sharma 10.00 (Bet365), Tripathi 11.00 (Bet365), Patel 12.00 (Bet365), Pollard 13.00 (Bet365), Dhoni 15.00 (Bet365), Unadkat 15.00 (Bet365).