Despite a positive first innings in which they posted 282, the West Indies ultimately went down to a strong Australian middle order who simply scored more quickly than their hosts.
Jason Holder’s side now have a second chance of reaching Sunday’s final but they must win big when they face the South Africans in Bridgetown on Friday.
Match Odds & Game Preview
We haven’t seen the best of South Africa in this series but they have improved as the tournament has developed and are now on offer at a short price of 1.47 with 888Sport to take the win. Elsewhere, you can back with Bet365.
There were definite positives for this West Indian team with a century from Marlon Samuels, backed up by 91 from Denesh Ramdin as the pair put on 182 for the fourth wicket. 282 looked challenging but they will now be aware that it was below par and that they will need to target somewhere above 300.
That could definitely be possible if Kieron Pollard can be more effective at the end of the innings. I’m favouring the South Africans but it could be tighter than the market is indicating.
Top Batsman Betting Picks
Samuels was available at an excellent price of 5.00 prior to that last match and has shortened slightly now to 4.75 with 888Sport. Darren Bravo leads things at 4.50 with Bet365 but the left hander has had a poor series by his standards and should probably be avoided.
Other options here include Johnson Charles at 5.00 with Bet365 while Denesh Ramdin, who has given long-odds profits in the past, proved with that 91 that you can’t ignore him. Ramdin is available for this match at an excellent 8.50 with 888Sport.
Betting Pick: South Africa’s version of this market is led by Hashim Amla and AB De Villiers who are both listed at 4.00 with Bet365 while Quinton De Kock follows at 4.33 with Bet365. De Kock is a tempter at that figure and is capable of taking his IPL form into this tournament, but we’ll stay with De Villiers who hasn’t been quite at his best so far.
Other, longer priced alternatives for this bet include Faf Du Plessis at 5.00 with Bet365 while JP Duminy can offer some late order resistance if there is a collapse. JP goes off here at 9.00 with 888Sport.
Must Read: A Complete Guide to IPL Betting
Other Bet Tips
We’re still waiting for a really big individual effort but if you like the look of the ‘Century in Match’ bet, this is quoted at 2.10 with Bet365. Instead, we’re going to finish with two stakes which should be a little safer.
Firstly, there is West Indies to hit the most sixes at 1.61 with Bet365. That’s a short price but they took it comfortably while losing to Australia last time out and they should do so again, irrespective of the match result.
Betting Tip: Finally, the wicket will suit the seamers and after taking a profit on Mitchell Starc in the last game, I’m backing Kagiso Rabada to be South Africa’s top bowler at 4.50 with Bet365.
That’s where I think the game will be won and lost as South African seamers take on a brittle if talented West Indian batting order. There are two concerns for the hosts here: firstly, Sunil Narine has been negated on this pitch and isn’t enjoying the success that he encountered during the first phase of this competition in Guyana. Secondly, the host nation relies too heavily at the moment on Marlon Samuels for their runs while others are out of form.
I think South Africa will edge this no matter what but if they can get Samuels early, the final margin of victory will be that much wider.
In the News
 business-standard.com, West Indies’ Holder doubtful for must-win game against South Africa, 2016