They’ve been ranked as outsiders throughout this three-nation series but West Indies continued to defy the odds as they beat South Africa to book their place in Sunday’s final. There they will meet an Australian team who have been strangely inconsistent but as expected, Steve Smith’s men are favourites to take the trophy.
The good news for West Indies sees their batsmen finding form at just the right time and they are no longer solely reliant on Marlon Samuels. Darren Bravo scored his third ODI ton in that win over South Africa while Denesh Ramdin and Kieron Pollard have also made useful runs as the tournament has wound down.
They have also beaten Australia so there is some clear value in the Windies’ win price of 2.70 with Betfair.
The favourites are Australia at 1.44 with Betfair again: as we mentioned, they have not been at their absolute best and the loss of David Warner at the start of the tournament is likely to have been a factor. But, they do have the better bowling attack, led by Mitchell Starc who finally looks fit again and getting back to the potent force he was prior to the 2015 Ashes series. The battle on this Bridgetown surface is between Australia’s seamers and West Indies’ batters and although both units are in good touch, I expect the Aussies to shade it.
Suddenly we have plenty of options in the West Indies version of this market and it’s one where Darren Bravo and Marlon Samuels share the favourites’ slot at 4.00 with Betfair. Johnson Charles follows at 4.50 with Betfair while Kieron Pollard, who has been in decent touch at times, is the value punt at 7.00 with Betfair once again.
It could be a tight afternoon with a number of possibles here but Samuels does tend to raise his game for the bigger occasions so we’re going to take that 4.00 price.
For Australia, Steve Smith is out in front at 3.75 with Betfair while Usman Khawaja is at 4.00 with Betfair who also give us a figure of 4.50 next to the name of Aaron Finch. I’ve been favouring Khawaja in this market but for the same reason that I’m backing Samuels, I feel that Smith will take responsibility in the final and produce Australia’s top score.
No matter what the outcome of a match might be, you can usually rely on the West Indies to hit more sixes than their opponents. That’s why they are favourites in this particular market at odds of 1.75 with Betfair with Australia behind at 2.50 – also with Betfair.
Take their most recent match against the Aussies which they lost by six wickets. West Indies hit six maximums to Australia’s two so I feel this has to be added to your betslip.
Similarly, I would look to back the favourites in a Powerplay market where Australia are priced at 1.57 with Betfair to be ahead at the end of the first 15 overs. Even without David Warner, the tourists should go off at a much faster pace and although that price is a little shorter than I would have liked, it seems a safe option.
There are some interesting side bets for this and they may be preferable to the result which has Australia looking quite short. West Indies have been much better than many expected in the longer format of the limited overs game and they have a chance to take this title but I feel that Australia’s bowling attack, led by an impressive Mitchell Starc, is going to swing the game towards the favourites.